Rupiah Exchange Rate Expected to Weak in Tuesday's Trading on 17 May 2022
5/16/2022
The rupiah exchange rate is estimated to weaken against the United States (US) dollar on Tuesday (17/5). External factors will still follow the movement of the rupiah. The market will respond to the release of US retail sales data.
Quoting Bloomberg, the rupiah exchange rate on Monday (16/5) closed down 0.57% to Rp 14,697 per US dollar.
Valbury Asia Futures Research & Education Coordinator Nanang Wahyudin said the rupiah started trading this week with a lot of pressure. The rupiah has weakened for the fifth day in a row.
"The Fed's aggressive interest rate sentiment and the potential rate are still aggressive, making the US dollar benefit. Not only the rupiah has weakened, other world currencies have also weakened,".
DCFX Futures analyst Lukman Leong said the rupiah will still weaken in tomorrow's trading. The weakening of the rupiah was caused by expectations of the Fed's interest rates and the recession as well as rising inflation data in Indonesia.
"Sentiment is still negative and investors tend to flight to safety USD. The latest data on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves also decreased which put pressure on the rupiah," said Lukman.
Nanang said the dollar was still benefiting from the market because of the confidence that emerged after local authorities through the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the central bank's move to raise interest rates would not interfere with the current US economic recovery and growth process, because of concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes. would cause the US economy to go into recession.
US retail sales growth is expected to rise from 0.5% to 1.1%. Domestically, there is economic data on the Trade Balance which is estimated to have a deficit of US$ 4.35 billion to US$ 3.25 billion.
Nanang said that while the Indonesian market is on holiday today and the global market is still affected by the strengthening of the dollar and interest rates. Moreover, the release of data from China which is not so good include retail sales, industrial production, and the unemployment rate.
Lukman said today the market is still hunting for dollars. The sentiment risk aversion or risk aversion in global markets still dominates.
Nanang projects that the rupiah will continue to weaken with a price range of Rp 14,580 per US dollar - Rp 14,650 per US dollar on Tuesday (167/5). Lukman estimates that the rupiah will move at Rp 14,600 per US dollar - Rp 14,750 per US dollar tomorrow.
